Modelling the Dental Workforce Supply in England
A project undertaken by the School of Clinical Dentistry
University of Sheffield
The aim of this project was to estimate the current and future
dental workforce supply in England. Postal surveys of dentist
non-specialists, dental specialists, dental hygienists, dental
therapists, dental technicians and dental nurses were conducted by
random sampling from the General Dental Council's register.
Scenario based supply models were used to forecast the dental
workforce supply for the next 20 years using both stocks-and-flows
approaches and participation rates. The 'stocks-and-flows' approach
predicted an increase in the number of general dental
practitioners. The participation rate predicted fluctuations which
are due to an ageing male workforce, greater intakes into dental
schools and a higher proportion of women in the dental
workforce.
For dental specialists, the stocks and flows approach predicted
an increase in numbers whereas the participation rate predicted a
small decrease because of the greater move toward part-time
working.
The survey found that dental therapists, who may also work as
dental hygienists, spend most of their working time not working as
a therapist. There is a projected decrease in the number of
hygienists due to fewer of them entering the workforce and
decreased participation rates among older hygienists.
The two modelling approaches produced similar fairly stable
forecasts for numbers of dental nurses over the next 20 years.
The report forecasts a gradual increase in numbers of dental
technicians although the mean age of the technicians surveyed was
45.3 years with only 19.6% under the age of 35.